We Are Modifying The Weather, But Not In The Ways Conspiracy Theorists Think We Are
Modifications are largely through green house gas emissions, but we will also talk about cloud seeding and solar geoengineering.
I can’t believe that I have to write this article, but I feel like it is too important not to. No, liberals aren’t creating hurricanes, and they are not guiding them into red states in a effort to suppress the Republicans vote. This is the newest conspiracy theory, which has gained momentum.
There is a common theme. Many of the same people believe the “election was stollen from Donald Trump,” that the COVID vaccine is really a government tracking device, and that Hattian immigrants are eating our pets.
Who Believes This Crap
In the Journal of Research in Personality, researcher Lukasz Stasielowicz found that, “On average, people who believe in pseudoscience, suffer from paranoia or schizotypy, are narcissistic or religious/spiritual and have relatively low cognitive ability, are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.”
If you pull some of the attributes from that quote, it sounds like a certain someone who is running for President.
While the liberals are not creating hurricanes and steering them into red states, there is a long history of weather modification in the United States.
Climate Change Impacts
As we burn fossil fuels, global CO2 levels continue to climb. Last week we discussed how Helene produced 50% more rainfall thanks to human-caused climate change. This week, we turn to the oceans. Water warmth near Milton is 800 times more likely because of climate change. Hurricanes are growing strong in record time, because of climate change.
This added heat content in the Gulf of Mexico helps inject places like Iowa with more humidity and moisture.
A History of Weather Modification in the United States: From Experimentation to Geoengineering
Since the mid-20th century, the quest to control and modify weather has evolved significantly in the United States. What began as ambitious experiments in cloud seeding has now expanded into advanced research on solar geoengineering, reflecting the urgent need to address global climate change. This article explores the key milestones, successes, challenges, and recent developments in weather modification, highlighting its impacts on climate and society. This geoengineering was largely created to help the agriculture industry.
1946–1950: The Experimental Era
The modern era of weather modification began in 1946 when researchers at General Electric Research Laboratories discovered that supercooled clouds could be induced to precipitate by seeding them with substances like dry ice and silver iodide (AgI). Supported by the U.S. military through Project Cirrus, these early experiments aimed to explore cloud modification's potential. Despite producing substantive changes in cloud formations, many hypotheses from this period—such as cloud self-propagation and "overseeding"—remained untested or controversial.
By 1947, the enthusiasm had spread globally, with cloud-seeding programs initiated in countries like Australia, France, and South Africa. The initial optimism set the stage for more extensive exploration of weather modification techniques.
1949–1954: The Bandwagon Era
In the face of severe droughts, especially in the southwestern United States, cloud seeding was rapidly adopted as a potential solution for water scarcity. Silver iodide became the preferred seeding agent due to its effectiveness and economic viability. Commercial cloud seeding operations expanded dramatically, covering over 200 million acres by the early 1950s.
Two distinct approaches emerged: commercial enterprises that aggressively marketed cloud seeding services and non-commercial, government-supported research programs like the Artificial Cloud Nucleation Project. While commercial operators often reported success, scientific evaluations remained inconclusive due to the complexities of atmospheric processes.
1952–1957: The Evaluation Era
Recognizing the need for rigorous assessment, the U.S. government established the Advisory Committee on Weather Control in 1953. This period focused on evaluating cloud-seeding programs through statistical and physical experiments. Although some studies indicated potential increases in precipitation, results were often mixed and contentious.
Challenges in demonstrating success stemmed from the variability in cloud formation and precipitation processes, which differ based on geographic location, cloud type, and meteorological conditions. The transferability of seeding methodologies proved difficult, as techniques effective in one area did not necessarily yield the same results elsewhere.
1956–Present: The Retrenchment Era
By the mid-1950s, the initial optimism waned as commercial cloud seeding operations declined sharply, shrinking to about one-fourth of their peak size by 1956. The focus shifted toward scientific research, with institutions like the National Science Foundation and the Department of Defense supporting deeper investigations into atmospheric physics.
Recent advancements in technology have reinvigorated some aspects of weather modification. Enhanced airborne instrumentation, radar systems, and remote sensing tools have improved monitoring and measurement capabilities, allowing for more precise seeding strategies and better understanding of cloud dynamics.
Successes and Challenges of Cloud Seeding Experiments
The success of cloud seeding experiments has been a subject of debate. While early experiments showed promise, the scientific community remains cautious due to inconsistent results and challenges in measuring outcomes.
Early Optimism and Mixed Results
Early cloud seeding efforts demonstrated that introducing substances like silver iodide into clouds could induce ice crystal formation, potentially leading to increased precipitation. However, over time, the high natural variability of clouds and limited understanding of atmospheric processes led to mixed and often inconclusive results. Recent studies have questioned the reliability of earlier findings, contributing to skepticism about the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of cloud seeding as a method for increasing precipitation.
Challenges in Demonstrating Success
One primary challenge is the complexity of atmospheric conditions. Cloud seeding's effectiveness can vary greatly depending on specific weather patterns, cloud types, and regional climates. Additionally, logistical issues such as effectively dispersing seeding materials across targeted cloud regions complicate efforts. Orographic cloud seeding, which targets clouds over mountains, has faced difficulties due to complex terrain and variable wind patterns, making it hard to consistently produce measurable increases in precipitation.
Recent Successes and New Methods
Despite these challenges, recent experiments have shown promise. In the 1990s, South African researchers conducted randomized cloud seeding using hygroscopic flares that release small salt particles to enhance the coalescence process in clouds. The results indicated that seeded storms produced significantly more rainfall than unseeded ones. These findings have renewed optimism about the potential of cloud seeding as a tool for water resource management.
Technological advancements have also played a crucial role. Modern tools enable scientists to gather detailed data on cloud microphysics and dynamics, improving the design and implementation of seeding experiments. These innovations increase the likelihood of success by allowing for more precise targeting and evaluation.
Recent Developments: Solar Geoengineering Research
In response to the escalating challenges of climate change, the focus of weather modification has expanded to include solar geoengineering—a set of techniques aimed at reflecting a portion of incoming solar radiation to cool the planet. The Harvard Solar Geoengineering Research Program (SGRP), part of the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University, is at the forefront of this research.
Solar Geoengineering Techniques
Solar geoengineering encompasses methods such as:
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Introducing reflective particles into the stratosphere to scatter sunlight back into space.
Marine Cloud Brightening: Enhancing the reflectivity of clouds over the oceans by spraying fine sea salt particles to encourage the formation of more reflective cloud droplets.
These approaches aim to supplement efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by providing a means to rapidly cool global temperatures and mitigate some immediate impacts of climate change.
Impacts on Climate Change
Solar geoengineering holds the potential to reduce extreme climate impacts, such as severe heatwaves, hurricanes, and sea-level rise. Modeling studies suggest that these techniques could lower global temperatures relatively quickly, buying time for societies to transition to sustainable energy sources and to adapt to changing climate conditions.
However, the implementation of solar geoengineering is fraught with uncertainties and risks:
Environmental Risks: Potential changes in global and regional precipitation patterns, impacts on ozone layer recovery, and unforeseen ecological consequences would be risks.
Governance Challenges: The need for international collaboration and regulation to manage deployment, prevent unilateral actions, and address issues of global equity are important considerations.
Ethical Considerations: There are concerns about moral hazard, where reliance on geoengineering could reduce the urgency to cut emissions, and questions about intergenerational responsibility should be considered.
The SGRP emphasizes that solar geoengineering is not a replacement for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, however it could serve as a complementary strategy to limit the most severe effects of climate change. The program focuses on conducting rigorous, interdisciplinary research to understand the feasibility, risks, and governance mechanisms necessary for responsible exploration of these technologies.
Integration into Weather Modification
The exploration of solar geoengineering represents a significant shift in weather modification research—from localized efforts to enhance precipitation to global-scale interventions aimed at stabilizing the Earth's climate system. It reflects an evolving understanding of humanity's capacity to influence the environment and the need for comprehensive strategies to address climate change.
Conclusion: Evolving Perspectives on Weather Modification
The history of weather modification in the United States is a narrative of ambition, innovation, and caution. From the early days of cloud seeding experiments to the contemporary exploration of solar geoengineering, the field has continuously adapted to new scientific insights and societal needs.
Today, as the realities of climate change become increasingly urgent, weather modification research is more relevant than ever. The integration of advanced technologies and interdisciplinary approaches offers new opportunities to understand and potentially mitigate environmental challenges.
However, the pursuit of weather modification, particularly on a global scale, demands careful consideration of ethical, environmental, and governance issues. The work of programs like the Harvard SGRP is crucial in ensuring that any advancements are grounded in robust science and responsible practices.
As we look to the future, weather modification stands at the intersection of science, policy, and society—a testament to human ingenuity and a reminder of the profound responsibility that comes with the power to influence our planet's climate.
Again, there is no way to change the intensity or trajectory of the hurricane in the sense that the conspiracy theorists are suggesting. However, we are impacting their rapid intensification through our unchecked carbon emissions.
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Well-written and very informative. Thank you!!
I am remiss. Wonderful article. I know the feeling of “can you believe I had to explain that to us suppose adult?” I mean, I’m currently in Missouri…..;)