Tilting the Table: Climate, Chaos, and the Future at Risk

A conversation with Dr. Jagadish Shukla on why the science is clear, the stakes are rising, and the next generation is watching.

Dr. Jagadish Shukla has spent his life studying what most people would consider unpredictable. As one of the world’s leading climate scientists, he’s worked to decode the seasonal rhythms that govern life across much of the globe, particularly in monsoon regions where rainfall isn’t just weather but a matter of survival.

Now, after decades of research, he’s written a memoir that looks forward as much as it looks back. It’s titled A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory, and it’s both a personal journey and a powerful warning.

“I dedicated the book to my granddaughters,” he told us during our conversation. “In the hope that they will adapt to and thrive in the future climate they will inherit.”

That future, according to Dr. Shukla, is already being shaped by forces far beyond our day-to-day forecasts. One of the biggest misconceptions he tries to correct is the idea that long-term climate projections can’t be trusted just because weather forecasts aren’t perfect beyond a week.

“There’s a huge difference between predicting weather and projecting climate,” he said. “Weather is about the sequence of events—what happens tomorrow depends on what’s happening today. But climate, especially decades into the future, depends on external factors. Things like solar output, volcanic activity, and the most important factor of all, greenhouse gas emissions.”

To explain it, he used an analogy that anyone can understand. Imagine a pool table. If you hit the cue ball the same way a few times, you might be able to repeat what happens with one or two of the balls. But you’ll never get all of them to go exactly where they did before. The tiny variations in your shot will send things in different directions. That’s weather.

But if you lift one side of the pool table, suddenly you know exactly where the balls are headed. Gravity does the rest. “That’s what adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere is doing,” he said. “We are tilting the table.”

That tilt is already changing life for millions, especially in South Asia. Dr. Shukla is deeply concerned about rising wet bulb temperatures, a combination of heat and humidity that puts serious limits on human survival. “Once the wet bulb temperature reaches 34 degrees Celsius, your body can no longer cool itself,” he said. “Sustained exposure becomes deadly, even for healthy people.”

He pointed to data from Woodwell Climate Research Center and Probable Futures showing that these extreme conditions are no longer rare. “In parts of India and Bangladesh, we are already seeing days each year where the wet bulb temperature crosses the danger zone,” he said. “And if emissions keep rising, these regions could become uninhabitable for large parts of the year.”

It’s not just about heat. Agricultural disruption, food insecurity, disease, water stress, and forced migration all follow. “What happens when there are two consecutive years of drought in a major food-producing region?” he asked. “It’s not just hunger. It’s collapse.”

And then there’s the political dimension.

In recent months, federal agencies in the United States have begun dismantling key sources of public climate information. Ten staffers who maintained Climate.gov were abruptly let go. Dr. Shukla didn’t mince words.

“We are destroying the institutions that collect data and carry out research,” he said. “That data is the foundation of everything we know about weather and climate. Without it, our understanding—and our predictions—begin to fail.”

The chilling effect goes beyond scientists already in the field. “We can’t attract graduate students anymore,” he said. “The funding is drying up. The support is gone. The next generation of researchers is already walking away.”

Dr. Shukla knows this firsthand. Years ago, after he helped organize a letter to President Obama calling for an investigation into the fossil fuel industry’s role in spreading climate disinformation, he became the target of a politically motivated inquiry. “The attacks were vicious,” he recalled. “But I fought back. The case was dropped. And the congressman leading the charge didn’t run for reelection.”

Still, the cost was high. And the stakes are even higher now.

Despite all of this, Dr. Shukla remains hopeful, particularly when he sees the passion of younger generations. “My students tell me they have climate anxiety,” he said. “And I tell them the solution to climate anxiety is climate action.”

That action needs to happen quickly. If emissions stay on their current path, global temperatures could rise more than three degrees Celsius by the end of the century. He described what that would mean not just physically but socially—more disease, more displacement, more conflict, more inequality.

“People with resources will adapt,” he said. “But the gap between the rich and poor will grow. International conflicts will rise. Climate change will become a new driver of instability around the world.”

He’s especially concerned about two specific risks. The first is back-to-back droughts in critical food-producing areas. “We can survive one bad year,” he said. “But two in a row? We’re talking about mass starvation.”

The second is sea level rise. “Half of it comes from melting ice,” he explained. “The other half comes from thermal expansion—as water warms, it expands. And both of those processes will continue for centuries, even if we stop emissions tomorrow.”

None of this is inevitable. But it requires will. And it requires honesty.

That’s part of what makes A Billion Butterflies so compelling. It’s not just a scientific memoir. It’s a call to action from someone who has spent a lifetime looking closely at a world most people barely notice until it’s too late.

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As members of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, we know the importance of telling these stories clearly, urgently, and with purpose. Because in a time of political suppression and scientific uncertainty, the truth needs advocates more than ever.