The U.S. military is planning for a trillion-dollar climate disaster. Not a billion-dollar one—those happen every two and a half weeks now. A trillion-dollar catastrophe that could cripple national security, devastate communities, and upend the economy.
I recently spoke with Admiral Mike Franken, a veteran of the U.S. Navy who has been deeply involved in climate resilience planning for the Department of Defense. What he told me was alarming: Hundreds of military facilities worldwide are already feeling the impacts of climate change, and the consequences will only worsen.
A Trillion-Dollar Storm Is Coming
According to Admiral Franken, the most likely trillion-dollar disaster would involve a Category 4 or 5 hurricane making direct landfall on Florida—ripping through Miami, Tampa, and the Gulf Coast, overwhelming critical U.S. military commands.
“If a major hurricane floods Tampa Bay, home to U.S. Central Command and Special Operations Command, it could cause catastrophic damage to military infrastructure and disrupt national defense,” Franken warned.
The U.S. military has been raising alarms for decades about why we are building major installations in low-lying coastal areas, yet little has changed. The next major storm could render key command centers inoperable overnight.
Climate Change Is Reshaping the Arctic—and Global Security
The Arctic is opening up faster than anticipated, exposing shipping lanes, military vulnerabilities, and valuable natural resources. But the U.S. is far behind in preparation.
The Navy lacks sufficient icebreakers, while Russia operates nuclear-powered icebreakers and is expanding its Arctic presence. China—despite not being an Arctic nation—claims to be a “near-Arctic state” and is increasing its influence in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. lacks critical port infrastructure to support Arctic operations, leaving a strategic gap.
Franken sees small modular nuclear reactors as a likely solution for Arctic military outposts, reducing dependence on unreliable fuel shipments. But without investment, the U.S. risks losing control over one of the most geopolitically strategic regions in the world.
Climate Migration Will Reshape Global Stability
Climate migration is not a distant crisis—it’s already happening.
In the Sahel region of Africa, drought and resource scarcity are forcing mass displacement. Andean glaciers that once provided water to communities in Peru and Ecuador are vanishing, driving migration into cities and beyond. Closer to home, sea-level rise and intensifying hurricanes will displace millions from Miami, New Orleans, and the Gulf Coast in the coming decades.
The U.S. military understands this threat, even if politicians refuse to acknowledge it.
“We’re just seeing the beginning of climate migration. By 2050, hundreds of millions of people could be on the move, forced out by climate disasters,” Franken said.
Industry and Allies Are Moving Forward—With or Without the U.S.
Even as some in Washington ignore climate science, businesses, the defense industry, and international allies are adapting.
“The world is laughing at us,” Franken admitted. “They believe America will snap out of this phase, but they aren’t waiting for us. The global economy is moving forward.”
While political leaders delay, industries are investing in climate adaptation, knowing that inaction will be far more expensive. And when the trillion-dollar disaster finally arrives? The U.S. will be looking in the rearview mirror, asking why we didn’t act sooner.
The Bottom Line
Climate change is already a national security threat, and the Pentagon knows it. From trillion-dollar hurricanes to Arctic power struggles and climate migration crises, the risks are growing. The question is: Will the U.S. act in time, or will we wait until it’s too late?
Let’s not wait until disaster strikes. The warnings are clear. The solutions exist. It’s time to connect the dots.
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