The Price of Chocolate Is Rising—And Climate Change Is to Blame

How Rising Temperatures Are Disrupting Cacao Crops, Driving Up Prices, and Reshaping Everyday Life

As Valentine’s Day arrives, many people are picking up chocolates to celebrate. But this year, they might notice something different—the price. The rising cost of chocolate isn’t just about inflation or supply chain disruptions; climate change is playing a significant role in disrupting cacao production, pushing prices higher and threatening future supply.

According to a new Climate Central report, human-caused climate change added six extra weeks of extreme heat in 2024 across the four West African countries that produce 70% of the world’s cacao: Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, and the Ivory Coast. When temperatures exceed 32°C (90°F) during the October–May growing season, cacao plants struggle. The heat reduces both the quality and quantity of cacao beans, leading to shortages and increased costs.

Shel Winkley, meteorologist at Climate Central, joined the Three Degrees Podcast to discuss not just chocolate but the broader challenge of making climate change feel personal. People may hear that the world just had its hottest year on record—again—but abstract statistics don’t always drive action. What does resonate are the everyday impacts that people can see, feel, and even taste. Chocolate is just one example, but it’s a clear reminder that climate change is reaching into unexpected corners of daily life.

Winkley, who spent 15 years as a broadcast meteorologist in College Station, Texas, believes that connecting climate change to local experiences is critical. One of his most effective examples came when an unusually warm February in Texas caused an early bloom of the state’s iconic bluebonnets, only to be followed by a hard freeze that killed them off. This sudden die-off left many Texans wondering what had happened. That moment provided an opportunity to explain how climate change is shifting the seasons—shortening winters, pushing spring-like conditions earlier, and disrupting the natural cycles that ecosystems rely on.

This kind of storytelling is essential to effective climate communication. Now at Climate Central, Winkley is helping journalists, meteorologists, and content creators across the country tell similar stories—making climate change tangible and connecting extreme weather to its broader causes. While some parts of the world experience sea level rise and devastating hurricanes, others are seeing warmer winters, earlier springs, and declining snowpack. These changes may seem subtle at first, but they carry serious long-term consequences.

One of the most overlooked consequences of warming winters is the loss of seasonal cold. While fewer freezing days might sound appealing, especially in places like Iowa and Texas, they play a critical role in maintaining ecosystems. Cold winters keep pest populations like mosquitoes in check, allow plants to enter dormancy, and replenish water supplies through snowfall. Without enough snow, regions that rely on seasonal meltwater for drinking and agriculture will face greater water shortages.

Another shift in climate communication is the rise of attribution science, which has transformed how scientists link extreme weather events to climate change. It was once common to hear that no single storm, heatwave, or flood could be directly attributed to climate change. That’s no longer the case. Today, scientists can determine how much more likely or severe an event has become due to global warming. When Hurricane Helene struck in 2024, Climate Central was able to show that the storm’s rapid intensification was driven by ocean waters that had become hundreds of times more likely to be unusually warm due to climate change. This kind of real-time analysis is helping people understand not just that the climate is changing, but exactly how it is affecting them.

Winkley also addressed the growing conversation around so-called “climate havens”—places believed to be safer from the worst effects of climate change. While some regions may be less vulnerable to hurricanes or extreme heat, no area is completely insulated. Buffalo, New York, has been touted as a climate refuge, but its proximity to the Great Lakes has left it vulnerable to record-breaking snowfalls due to reduced lake ice. Asheville, North Carolina, was considered a relatively safe location—until historic inland flooding struck. The idea that any place can fully escape climate-related disruptions is proving to be an illusion.

As the world continues to warm, the impacts of climate change will become even more visible and unavoidable. Whether it’s rising chocolate prices, disappearing bluebonnets, or record-breaking storms, climate change is not a distant threat—it’s already shaping daily life in ways large and small.

For those wondering where to settle in the coming decades, the answer is increasingly complex. Climate risks vary by location, and while some areas may fare better than others, adaptation will be necessary everywhere. Meanwhile, the need for mitigation remains urgent. The extreme weather of 2024 offered a glimpse into a future shaped by unchecked warming, but it also reinforced that action can still make a difference.

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