Forecasting on Fumes: How Cuts to the Weather Service Are Putting Us at Risk

Staffing shortages, stalled contracts, and a warming world — inside the unraveling of America’s first line of defense against extreme weather

On the latest episode of Three Degrees, we sat down with Ray Wolf — the former Science and Operations Officer (or SOO) at the National Weather Service office in the Quad Cities. Ray recently retired after decades of service, and while he’s no longer issuing warnings during tornado outbreaks or 2 AM ice storms, he’s still sounding the alarm. Not about the weather this time, but about what’s happening to the very system that helps keep us safe from it.

As we opened the episode, I laid out a simple truth that’s often forgotten in the age of smartphones and AI: “Everyone says, ‘Why do we need so many National Weather Service meteorologists when we have an app?’ Well — apps are awful.”

What most people don’t realize is that apps rely on raw model data. No context, no judgment, just numbers. And as Ray knows better than most, model data doesn’t issue warnings. People do.

But what happens when there are fewer and fewer people left to do the job?

Right now, 55 of the 122 forecast offices around the country are critically understaffed. Some don’t even have managers or senior meteorologists. That’s a crisis in its own right, but it’s especially dangerous in a time of increasing extremes — more rapid tornado development, longer hurricane seasons, and overlapping severe weather events.

“With the early retirements, you’ve lost a lot of your experienced folks who’ve been around the corner and kind of know how things go,” Ray told us. “But maybe more importantly… letting go of the new hires, the folks who are in that probationary period — those are the people that you would go to to fill the slots of those who retired early.”

In other words, they’re cutting from both ends. And that leaves the folks in the middle trying to hold the place together.

The Weather Service has long operated under a culture of continuous improvement. Even when budgets were tight, it still found ways to evolve — adding Doppler radar, expanding its climate capabilities, increasing collaboration with broadcasters and emergency managers. But all of that depends on people. Experienced people training the next generation. New hires bringing fresh energy. Managers helping coordinate and lead.

Ray reminded us that the SOO role isn’t just about science — it’s about mentoring. “There’s so much that you learn just working side by side,” he said. “Those younger folks learn from the more experienced staff.” That’s not something you can automate or outsource. That’s institutional memory. And it’s being lost.

Meanwhile, hiring has been frozen. Contracts are being held up. In one of the more absurd developments, any NOAA contract worth $100,000 or more now has to be signed off by the Secretary of Commerce — Howard Lutnick — regardless of whether it's a ten-year deal or not. Even something as routine as fixing a balloon launch system can be delayed by layers of unnecessary bureaucracy. Ray called it “putting out fires left and right.” It’s no way to run an agency that’s supposed to be protecting lives and property.

We talked about what it means when offices don’t have enough people to handle local events. Sometimes they’re forced to rely on neighboring offices — 600 miles away — to issue warnings. That’s not a plan, that’s a backup plan for when the real system has already failed. “Certainly when you’re operating on Plan B instead of Plan A, you’re not as proficient,” Ray admitted. “And when you run at 90 percent for multiple days on end… eventually, you pay the price.”

That price might not show up in the immediate aftermath of a storm — especially not with the dedication and sacrifice of the people still inside those offices. But over time, cracks form. And during a hurricane or multi-day outbreak, cracks can become disasters.

This isn’t a theoretical conversation. It’s happening now. It’s happening in communities like yours and mine. Offices are running lean. Contracts are stalled. The data that feeds every weather model, every broadcast, and yes — every app — is in jeopardy.

Ray made it clear: “Without that data, you have no apps, you have no AI.” And the public still expects warnings to come on time — even if the people responsible for them are stretched past their limits.

It’s not just about forecasts. It’s about trust. As we discussed the future of storm intensity and frequency, especially here in the Midwest, Ray pointed out something that doesn’t get enough attention in these climate conversations: “You can’t look at severe weather in the future without considering social vulnerability.” That same tornado that hit a cornfield 30 years ago might now tear through a shopping center. The weather hasn’t changed — but the consequences have.

And yet, despite everything, Ray had hope. He praised the next generation of forecasters — smart, science-driven, deeply mission-oriented. “The group of younger folks coming into the agency today are just outstanding,” he said. “They’re interested in making a difference for the public.”

That’s why we need to support them. That’s why we need to rebuild the staffing. That’s why NOAA and the National Weather Service can’t just be another casualty of political gamesmanship.

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