A Ticking Time Bomb: Lessons from Katrina
Scientists and survivors warn that climate change, sinking levees, and racial inequities leave New Orleans vulnerable to the next big storm.
The Lower 9th has recovered to a point, but the scars remain visible throughout the neighborhood. There are still empty, overgrown lots where homes once stood, roads that lead nowhere, and abandoned houses bearing the faded spray painted X’s left by search and rescue crews two decades ago. These reminders of loss are layered on top of another reality: the disaster itself was made worse by climate change.
Twenty years ago this week, Hurricane Katrina became one of the deadliest and costliest disasters in U.S. history. A new analysis from Climate Central shows that human driven climate change had already intensified the storm. Katrina reached Category 5 strength with 175 mph winds over waters nearly 1°C (1.6°F) warmer than they would have been without climate change. That warming made such conditions up to 18 times more likely and added about 5 mph to Katrina’s maximum sustained winds. A small number on paper, but NOAA estimates that even a 5 mph increase could have amplified damages by 25% or more.
As Dr. Daniel Gilford, a meteorologist and climate scientist at Climate Central, put it: “Already back in 2005, climate change was influencing Atlantic hurricanes and their impacts. If Katrina had formed in today’s climate, it likely would have been even more powerful.”
Barry Keim: “It Was 98 Percent Manmade”
To understand Katrina’s legacy, I spoke with Dr. Barry Keim, the former Louisiana State Climatologist, who lived through the storm both as a scientist and as a son of the region. He recalled how Katrina spun up quickly over the Bahamas, crawled across Florida, and then once it reached the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico it “exploded in intensity,” soaring from a Category 1 to a Category 5 with 175 mph winds.
Although it weakened slightly before landfall, Keim stressed it carried with it a massive storm surge already built up during its peak. Mississippi endured a record breaking 28 foot surge, the highest ever recorded in the Gulf.
But in New Orleans, the true catastrophe wasn’t nature alone. “If we’re looking just at New Orleans, I’d say it was 98 percent manmade and only 2 percent natural,” Keim told me. “It was an engineering catastrophe. Had the levees not failed, New Orleans would have seen only minor flooding.”
That failure turned Katrina from a disaster into a cataclysm. Eighty percent of New Orleans was underwater. Entire parishes were wiped out, including Keim’s childhood home in Chalmette, which sat on land three feet above sea level. “The water there got to about 12 feet above sea level. We had nine feet of water in the house,” he remembered.
Ivor van Heerden: “We All Knew, But Nobody Listened”
Another voice I turned to was Ivor van Heerden, the former deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center. Long before Katrina struck, he and colleagues had run the infamous “Hurricane Pam” exercise, which simulated what a major storm could do to New Orleans. The models showed tens of thousands could drown, the city would flood even without levee breaches, and massive tent cities would be needed to house evacuees.
“The state of Louisiana took it seriously, but the federal officials didn’t,” Ivor told me. “I even heard Corps of Engineers people laughing at me when I presented.”
His warnings proved prophetic. Just weeks before Katrina, FEMA staff themselves circulated internal memos admitting they weren’t ready. And then Katrina came, the levees failed, and New Orleans drowned.
What followed was not only an engineering and government failure, but also a moral one. “The Lower 9th’s people were totally unjustly treated,” Ivor said. “There was definitely racism in how the response unfolded. The media spread lies about violence in the Superdome, but every study since has shown there was no widespread violence, no rapes, no shootings. People were just trying to survive, to feed their kids, to find water. Most of those who died, died because of the failed response.”
Two decades later, Ivor’s research shows New Orleans is still at risk. Subsidence and accelerating sea level rise have already left parts of the city’s new $14.6 billion flood protection system one to two feet below grade. “New Orleans is another ticking time bomb,” he warned. “And the system was built to an insurance standard, to protect property, not lives.”
If Katrina Hit in 2025
Forecasting has improved dramatically since 2005, with models that can halve the margin of error for landfall tracks. New floodgates and reengineered canals make New Orleans better protected than before.
But both Keim and van Heerden caution that the risks remain. Rainfall intensity is increasing, and the city’s pumps cannot keep up with short, extreme bursts. A Harvey style rainfall on top of a Katrina sized surge, Keim said, “would be catastrophic.”
And as van Heerden pointed out, the levees are already sinking while seas are rising faster than the Corps of Engineers ever planned for. The next major storm may not need to be stronger than Katrina to cause devastation.
Cuts to FEMA and NOAA: History Repeating
Both Keim and van Heerden expressed deep concern about the erosion of federal capacity to prepare for the next Katrina. Before 2005, the Bush administration had already cut FEMA, stripping institutional knowledge. Now, with cuts to NOAA research and staffing, scientists fear a similar vulnerability.
“FEMA plays a very important role in recovery,” Keim said. “And NOAA’s research labs are where innovation happens. We shrunk the cone of uncertainty by half since Katrina because of research. If you slash those labs, people won’t be working on improvements, and it could take years to recover. We won’t be as prepared moving forward.”
Van Heerden echoed that fear. “New Orleans is still a ticking time bomb. And if you’re young and your house is part of your retirement portfolio, get out now.”
The Warning in the Scars
The Lower 9th Ward is still marked by empty lots, crumbling houses, and faint rescue markings. But those scars are not only reminders of the past, they are warnings about the future. Katrina was both a natural and manmade disaster, shaped by climate change, engineering failures, and inequity.
As seas rise and hurricanes intensify, the question is not whether another Katrina will come, but whether we will be ready, and whether we will respond justly, for all communities.
It’s an honor to share this story as part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, where powerful writing meets urgent issues. Follow along:
